Jamal Murray's Crucial Role in Denver's Title Chase
Nikola Jokic is edging toward the back half of his prime, and Denver knows it. The Nuggets’ title window isn’t slamming shut yet, but you can hear the hinges creak. How wide it stays open over the next few years will depend heavily on one player.
Jamal Murray.
The organization is betting that 2026-27 is the season he delivers a full-scale leap — not just as a scorer next to Jokic, but as a complete, All-NBA-level guard. The projections suggest that leap is coming.
There’s just one problem. And it’s a familiar one.
Denver’s shot problem — and Murray’s role in fixing it
For all of Denver’s offensive polish last season, one number screamed trouble: 87.8 field goal attempts per game. That ranked 26th in the league.
They were deadly when they actually pulled the trigger. The Nuggets led the NBA in three-point percentage at 39.6 percent and finished second in overall field goal percentage at 49.6 percent. They simply didn’t shoot enough. An elite offense that doesn’t generate volume leaves the door open every night.
That’s where Murray’s projected jump becomes crucial.
Per 36-minute projections for 2026-27 paint a picture of a guard who can both preserve that efficiency and help Denver attack more aggressively. Translated to per-game numbers, assuming a similar 35.4 minutes per night, Murray is forecast to average 23.7 points on 17.5 field goal attempts.
That’s a slight dip from his career-high 25.4 points on 18.1 attempts, but context matters. Denver just brought in DeMar DeRozan, a proven three-level scorer and career 21.1-point-per-game threat from his Sacramento stint. Someone has to give up shots. The models say it’ll be Murray — but only marginally.
He’s not being pushed to the background. He’s shifting into a more balanced role.
Scoring less, impacting more
The scoring headline doesn’t tell the whole story. Murray’s projected efficiency is elite, even by his standards.
He’s expected to hit 42.1 percent from beyond the arc, which would be the third-best mark of his career. From the field overall, he’s projected at 47.9 percent, also his third-highest. That kind of shot-making from your lead guard, next to Jokic’s all-time efficiency and DeRozan’s midrange mastery, is the foundation of a top-tier offense.
The defensive projections quietly add another layer.
Murray is slated for 4.3 rebounds and 0.5 blocks per game, both tracking as the second-best averages of his career. The numbers also suggest a bump in his ability to disrupt at the point of attack, with steals projected at 1.1 per game — back toward his better defensive seasons.
Those aren’t gaudy stat lines, but for a guard who will carry heavy offensive responsibility, they matter. Denver doesn’t need him to be a lockdown defender. It needs him to compete, to read passing lanes, to challenge at the rim when guards sneak through. The projections say he’s trending in that direction.
The real leap: from scorer to organizer
The brightest signal in Murray’s 2026-27 forecast doesn’t come in the scoring column at all. It’s in the playmaking.
He’s projected to average 6.7 assists per game, which would be the second-highest mark of his career, just behind the 7.1 he posted in 2025-26. Given the offensive weapons around him — Jokic, DeRozan, Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson, Christian Braun — that number may even be conservative if Denver’s shooters convert at their expected clips.
This is where the Nuggets need evolution, not just production.
For too long, Jokic has shouldered the bulk of the creative load. When the offense bogs down, it’s the big man who has to see everything, solve everything, and deliver the right pass. That makes Denver easier to scheme against in a seven-game series. Take away Jokic’s easy reads, load up on his passing lanes, and the offense can start to look predictable.
A Murray who reliably organizes the offense, gets them into sets, and creates clean looks for others changes the geometry of the floor. It means Denver can run stretches where Jokic is more finisher than fulcrum. It means DeRozan doesn’t have to manufacture every midrange touch off the dribble. It means Gordon and Johnson can live off timely, simple reads.
Tyus Jones was brought in to help stabilize those non-Murray, non-Jokic minutes, but he’s coming off a 2.4-assist season and will need time to adjust to Denver’s system. His 7.3-assist campaign with the 2023-24 Wizards shows what he can do, yet the early burden of orchestration will still sit with Murray.
If that 6.7-assist projection holds — or even creeps up — the Nuggets’ offense gains a second true conductor.
The ghost that won’t leave: turnovers
There is, however, a catch. And it’s one Murray knows too well.
Turnovers have followed him throughout his nine-year career, a recurring flaw in an otherwise polished offensive game. Even as he climbed to All-NBA Third Team status in 2025-26, that weakness stayed attached.
The projections don’t offer much comfort there. Murray is forecast to average 2.3 turnovers per game in 2026-27, which would be a career-high and sits well above the 1.7-turnover league average for point guards.
If that number holds, it would mark the third time in nine seasons that he’s set a new personal high in giveaways.
Some of that is baked into his role. High-usage guards who score and create are always flirting with the edge. Murray often serves as the primary scorer when Jokic sits, and at times he’s the sole offensive engine keeping Denver afloat. That kind of responsibility breeds risk.
But this season, the stakes are different.
With Jokic still in his prime but inching closer to the other side of it, with DeRozan added as another major piece, with new contenders rising across the league, Denver cannot afford to give away possessions in bunches. The hope inside the organization will be that Jones can soak up some of the ballhandling load and calm the offense, especially in second units, nudging those turnover numbers down.
The projections say the ghost remains. The season will reveal whether Murray can finally exorcise it.
Can Murray climb back to All-NBA?
Strip it down, and the question hanging over Denver is simple: can Jamal Murray play his way back onto an All-NBA team by the end of 2026-27?
The statistical roadmap is there. Around 23.7 points per game. High-40s from the field. Over 42 percent from three. A jump in rebounds, blocks, and steals. Roughly seven assists as a primary organizer. On paper, that’s the profile of one of the league’s premier guards.
The barrier isn’t talent, nor is it opportunity. It’s control.
If Murray tightens his handle on the game — literally and figuratively — and cuts into that projected 2.3-turnover mark while steering Denver back into serious title contention, the All-NBA conversation will take care of itself.
If he doesn’t, the Nuggets will still be dangerous, still beautifully built around Jokic, still capable of deep runs. But in a West loaded with emerging stars and hungry challengers, “dangerous” might not be enough.
The window is open. How long it stays that way may depend on whether Jamal Murray’s next step is just big — or truly clean.
