Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest: A Clash of Expectations
Seven games into a Premier League season, the table still lies more than it tells the truth. Runs of form can mislead, fixture lists can flatter or punish, and a single late goal can redraw the narrative. Even with all that caveat, though, Ipswich in 10th and Nottingham Forest in 19th jars the eye.
Portman Road hosts a meeting of two clubs who expected to be looking over each other’s shoulders this year, not separated by nine places. One has found a way to grind, scrap and edge games. The other is still searching for a pulse.
Ipswich: Shape, steel and a growing edge at home
Ipswich have not dazzled their way into mid-table. They have hustled their way there. Efficient, organised, awkward – especially at Portman Road, where they already have more wins than in their entire relegation campaign two seasons ago.
Three victories from seven, the same tally as Liverpool in fifth, underline the point. Gary O’Neil has not wasted time worrying about aesthetics. He has made Ipswich competitive, and in late October that matters far more than any stylistic manifesto.
His selection picture is relatively clear. Sasa Lukic, who missed the 3-2 defeat at Manchester City with a minor groin issue, is expected to return and should slot straight back in alongside Exequiel Palacios in midfield. If there is any late doubt, Florentino Luis and Azor Matusiwa sit ready as like-for-like options, but the plan is simple: restore the partnership that gives Ipswich control and bite in the middle.
Jack Taylor remains sidelined with a knee problem and has yet to feature this season, so that avenue stays closed. Out wide, though, O’Neil finally has a decision to make again. Abdul Fatawu is back from suspension and immediately puts pressure on Daizen Maeda for that berth on the flank. Maeda’s work rate is rarely in question; his end product has to match it now that a direct rival is back in the frame.
The tactical question is at the back. O’Neil switched to a back three at the Etihad and, despite the defeat, there was enough there to convince him it is worth another look. Keeping that structure would mean Leif Davis and Abdoul Ouattara continuing as wing-backs, stretching the pitch while still giving Ipswich an extra body in the defensive line.
At home, against a Forest side short on confidence and goals, that system feels less like a safety blanket and more like a platform. Width when they attack, numbers when they defend, and the chance to squeeze Forest high without leaving the centre-backs exposed. It is pragmatic, not timid.
Forest: blunt numbers, big questions
Forest arrive with a very different energy. Oliver Glasner has yet to find rhythm or reliability since taking charge. The numbers are stark enough on their own: five points, a goal difference of -4, and no goals in four home matches. That is how you end up travelling to Portman Road second from bottom. There is no dressing that up.
The problems run through both ends of the pitch. At the top, Igor Jesus is out with a calf injury until the end of the month, so the central striker role almost certainly falls to Liam Delap. Chris Wood offers cover, but Delap is the one with the legs to threaten in behind and the recent proof that he can hurt Premier League defences.
Behind him, Forest’s creative axis depends heavily on one man. Morgan Gibbs-White missed the defeat to Arsenal with a muscle issue, but Glasner suggested he was close to returning. If he is fit, he starts. No debate, no nuance. Forest need a player who can stitch their midfield to their forward line, someone who can receive under pressure and turn. Gibbs-White is that conduit.
His availability also shapes the rest of the midfield. If he plays, James McAtee can drop a line deeper, offering an extra passer and presser from midfield. If he does not, Nicolas Dominguez is likely to keep his place, asked again to carry more of the creative burden than suits his natural game.
At the back, there is at least a hint of good news. Nikola Milenkovic returned to the matchday squad against Arsenal after recovering from a knee bone bruise. Glasner will be wary of rushing him, but the option to reintroduce him carefully is there. Nicolo Savona, by contrast, remains a long-term absentee with a knee injury and has not played since January, so any thought of him altering Forest’s immediate fortunes is off the table.
Delap’s return and a game that tests the table
The personal storyline writes itself. Liam Delap walks back into Portman Road with memories of a productive spell behind him and a point to prove in front of a familiar crowd. He has already offered glimpses of his ceiling in a Forest shirt, including the opener in their 2-1 win at Aston Villa, a goal that showcased his movement and sharpness in the box.
He will fancy this. Ipswich, especially in a back three with adventurous wing-backs, are likely to defend with numbers but still leave lanes open in transition. That is Delap’s territory: the spaces that appear for half a second when a wing-back is caught high, or when a centre-back steps out and cannot get back in. If Forest can turn Ipswich around quickly, Delap has every chance of finding the positions he thrives in – and the scoresheet.
Predicting the outcome, though, is where the story frays. The evidence pulls hard in both directions. Ipswich can point to league position, home advantage and a calmer mood around the club. They look settled, sure of their roles, and buoyed by the knowledge that Portman Road is starting to feel like a weapon again.
Forest, on the other hand, can lean on the argument that their underlying numbers are stronger than their league place suggests, that performances have not always matched results, and that the return of Gibbs-White would instantly sharpen their attack. One influential player back between the lines and the whole picture can tilt.
Kick-off is at 8pm BST on Friday, October 23 at Portman Road. By full time, one of these sides may have exposed the league table as a mirage. Or the night might confirm an uncomfortable truth: that both clubs are still some distance from where they thought they would be.
