Alcaraz, Sabalenka, and Osaka: Three Stories at the US Open
Carlos Alcaraz walks back into the glare of Arthur Ashe Stadium on Monday carrying two things: a defending champion’s target on his back and four months of rust in his right wrist.
The Spaniard hasn’t struck a ball in anger since April, when that wrist injury halted a season that had started in historic fashion. His Australian Open triumph in January made him the youngest man ever to complete the career Grand Slam. Now he’s trying to frame the year with majors at both ends, using the US Open as the exclamation mark rather than the question.
He won’t be eased in.
Alcaraz back under the lights
Roman Safiullin is not the first-round opponent a returning champion usually hopes for. The 29-year-old Russian hits flat, hard and unafraid, and he’s already shown he can live with the game’s heaviest artillery.
At Wimbledon, Safiullin blasted past Andrey Rublev and Joao Fonseca to reach the fourth round, where he forced Novak Djokovic into four sets. From the baseline, he has the weight of shot to push anyone back, and Alcaraz knows it.
The head-to-head is locked at 1-1, and it tells a story. In 2023, Safiullin stunned then-world number two Alcaraz at the ATP Paris Masters, bullying him indoors and exposing a rare off-night from the Spaniard. Alcaraz struck back the following year at the Paris Olympics, restoring order and reminding Safiullin what his best level looks like when fully tuned.
Now comes the real test: that wrist.
Alcaraz has spoken of “demanding” practice blocks and says he trusts the joint again, insisting he is ready to “go 100 percent.” Training courts, though, don’t roar. Ashe does. The first few heavy forehands, the first wide stretch on the backhand, will tell him – and everyone else – how ready he really is.
If Safiullin finds his range early, Alcaraz could be dragged into a trench battle from the back of the court. If the champion’s timing clicks, the Russian may simply become the first victim of another New York charge.
Sabalenka’s slide meets a familiar foe
On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka steps into this US Open with a strange paradox hanging over her. She is the two-time defending champion, the top seed, and yet arrives in New York on the back of a mid-season slump that has stripped away the aura she built in the spring.
Back in March, Sabalenka owned the hard courts. She swept the titles at Indian Wells and Miami, adding them to a trophy in Brisbane and a run to the Australian Open final. She looked, for a moment, like the game’s immovable force.
Then the wheels wobbled.
A quarter-final exit at Roland Garros. A fourth-round loss at Wimbledon. A run of results that leaves her ranking vulnerable enough that even a third straight US Open crown might not be enough to keep her at world number one. Only Chris Evert and Serena Williams have ever won this title three times in a row; Sabalenka is chasing their company with the uncomfortable knowledge that she could lift the trophy and still slide down the rankings list.
Her opener against Camila Osorio brings some comfort. Sabalenka leads their head-to-head 2-0, with wins on very different surfaces: the grass of Wimbledon in 2021 and the clay of Madrid in 2023. She knows she can hit through the Colombian, knows the patterns that work, and has not been shy about her mindset.
“Throw tough challenges at me, I will come back stronger,” she says.
That defiance will be tested from the first ball. Osorio, ranked 59 in the world, competes hard and runs everything down. If Sabalenka’s timing or patience is off, this could become another nervy early-round grind. If the Belarusian’s serve and first-strike game return to their March levels, it might instead be the statement performance she’s been missing all summer.
Osaka returns to her favourite stage
Naomi Osaka walks into Flushing Meadows with a different kind of history behind her. The Japanese star has already lifted the US Open trophy twice, in 2018 and 2020, two of the four majors that defined her first rise to the top.
“I think I've proven myself here, so I can kind of bank on that and use that to have confidence,” she said recently. On this court, in this city, she doesn’t need anyone else to tell her who she is.
The journey back has been anything but smooth. Osaka’s last Grand Slam title came in Australia five years ago. She has spoken with striking honesty about her mental health, stepped away from the sport to look after it, and then took 15 months out to focus on motherhood before returning in 2023.
The results are starting to follow the work. A semi-final in Washington on hard courts, then a quarter-final in Toronto this month, hint at a player steadily rebuilding her competitive edge. At Wimbledon, she produced her best-ever run to the quarter-finals, highlighted by an upset of Sabalenka that reminded everyone how dangerous she remains when the big match lights flick on.
Now she’s back on the surface that suits her best, facing Anastasia Zakharova for the first time.
Zakharova, ranked 101, will arrive with little to lose and plenty of power. Osaka, though, knows what a fast start in New York can do for her season. If the serve lands and the forehand flows, this could feel less like a tentative return and more like the opening act of a serious title push.
Alcaraz’s wrist, Sabalenka’s nerve, Osaka’s resurgence – Day 2 at the US Open offers three very different stories. By night’s end, we’ll know which of them still looks like a champion in waiting.
