US Open 2023: Women's and Men's Singles Predictions

The US Open returns to New York on Sunday with the draw wide open, the rankings on a knife edge and a sense that both tours are bracing for a shakeup.

Aryna Sabalenka, two-time defending champion in Flushing Meadows and the current world No. 1, tops a women’s field loaded with storylines. Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff all arrive with a mathematical shot at stealing her ranking by the end of the fortnight. On the men’s side, Alexander Zverev leads the draw as top seed in the absence of injured world No. 1 Jannik Sinner, while Carlos Alcaraz returns from four months out and Novak Djokovic chases an astonishing 25th major.

The stage is set. The predictions are bold.

Women’s singles: All-American storm brewing

Serena Williams is only on doubles duty this year, but American interest in the singles draw hardly needs a boost. Pegula and Gauff are both in the top tier of contenders, and USA TODAY’s panel sees Arthur Ashe Stadium turning into a home court.

Scooby Axson, Cydney Henderson and Danielle Lerner all land on the same semifinal backbone: Gauff and Pegula.

Axson sees “home cooking” powering both into the last four. In his bracket, Gauff earns a blockbuster semifinal against five-time Grand Slam champion Iga Swiatek. The key, he believes, is Gauff’s serve. If it holds up, he has her taking out the 2022 US Open champion to book her place in the final.

On the other side, Axson pairs Pegula with Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova, the latest star from Czechia’s deep talent pool that currently has seven women inside the top 50. He expects Pegula to handle that test cleanly, predicting straight sets and a second US Open final for the Buffalo native.

Henderson draws the same American axis — Gauff and Pegula — but tweaks the path. She also puts Gauff against Swiatek in the semifinals, with the Pole advancing through an ailing Rybakina, if the world No. 2’s Achilles soreness even allows her to reach the quarterfinals. Pegula, in Henderson’s view, runs into Sabalenka. That’s where pressure becomes the story. With Sabalenka fighting to protect her No. 1 ranking, Henderson sees the weight of expectation cracking the two-time defending champion and Pegula pouncing.

Lerner’s bracket mirrors the other two in one crucial respect: Gauff and Pegula both ride their Cincinnati form into the New York semifinals. She also has Gauff facing Swiatek and Pegula meeting Noskova, who impressed her with the resilience that carried the Czech to the Wimbledon title earlier this year. The big names missing from Lerner’s final four? Rybakina and Sabalenka. After Rybakina’s retirement in Cincinnati with that Achilles issue, Lerner doesn’t see the No. 2 seed surviving beyond the quarterfinals. Sabalenka, she argues, has looked mentally vulnerable against lesser opposition and won’t survive long enough to defend her crown.

The panel splits when the trophy comes into view.

Axson calls an all-American final: Pegula vs. Gauff. In his script, it’s Pegula’s moment. She wins her first US Open, climbs to No. 1 in the rankings and sends Buffalo into celebration.

Henderson also backs an all-American showdown between the close friends and doubles partners, a rematch of last week’s Cincinnati Open final. Her champion, though, is Gauff. Six straight wins coming into New York, a dominant title in Cincinnati and a growing aura on hard courts tilt her pick toward the 20-year-old.

Lerner breaks from the all-American theme at the last hurdle. She sends Gauff past Swiatek and Noskova past Pegula, setting up a Gauff–Noskova final. From there, she leans heavily on momentum. Gauff, already a two-time major winner in her bracket, serves big and claims what Lerner projects as her third Grand Slam crown and second US Open title.

Three reporters, three versions of the same message: Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula are no longer just local favorites. They’re the axis around which this women’s draw might spin.

Men’s singles: A power vacuum and a new wave

On the men’s side, the absence of Jannik Sinner and the uncertainty around Carlos Alcaraz’s fitness have cracked open a draw that usually feels pre-written. Zverev, already a French Open champion this year, enters as top seed with a clear opportunity to tighten his grip near the top of the ATP rankings. Djokovic returns to New York hunting a 25th major. The American men, tired of hearing about their decades-long title drought at their home Slam, see a window.

Axson believes the tournament is “really suited” for Taylor Fritz to finally make a deep run. He sends the ninth seed into a semifinal against Zverev, but has Fritz “come up short once again” against the German. The other side of his draw is where he drops a statement: ignore Djokovic at your peril. Axson has the 24-time major winner pushing deep again, only to run into 22-year-old Arthur Fils. The Frenchman, who impressed in Cincinnati, becomes the young gun who finally stops Djokovic and storms into his first major final.

Henderson’s bracket turns New York into a proving ground for the next American star. With Sinner out and Alcaraz returning from a lengthy injury layoff, she sees opportunity everywhere. Ben Shelton, erratic this hard-court swing — title in Montreal, early exit in Cincinnati — flips the switch in front of the home crowd. She has Shelton surging to a semifinal against Djokovic. On the other half, she lines up Zverev against third seed Felix Auger-Aliassime, who is still chasing his first Grand Slam final but owns the pedigree to challenge the top seed on hard courts.

Lerner leans into the chaos. She calls this “one of the more unpredictable US Opens in recent memory,” yet still trusts two familiar names to punch through the noise: Alcaraz and Djokovic. Despite Alcaraz’s lack of match play and Djokovic’s recent early exits on hard courts, she puts them on a collision course in the semifinals. The quarterfinal between Alcaraz and Shelton, in her view, could be one of the matches of the tournament. The other half of her draw mirrors Axson’s faith in Fritz. She sends the American to the last four, where he meets top seed Zverev.

The finals picks underline just how fractured the men’s field feels.

Axson goes all-in on the new wave: Arthur Fils vs. Taylor Fritz. From there, he rides Fils’ form. The Frenchman’s “hot streak” continues, he says, and the 22-year-old leaves New York with his first major and a place in what Axson calls a “new big three” alongside Alcaraz and Sinner.

Henderson doubles down on Shelton’s breakout. In her view, the left-hander not only reaches his first US Open final on home soil, he wins it. Her title match: Shelton vs. Zverev, with the American lifting his first Grand Slam trophy and finally ending that long, uncomfortable conversation about U.S. men at their home Slam.

Lerner’s champion pick isn’t listed, but her bracket sets up a Djokovic–Fritz final. In that scenario, Fritz would stand one match away from the biggest title of his career, and Djokovic would be staring at major No. 25 with an American between him and history.

The rankings are in play. The hierarchy is under threat. From Sabalenka’s grip on No. 1 to Zverev’s chance to tighten his hold near the top, from Gauff and Pegula’s home-slam ambitions to Shelton, Fritz and Fils chasing their first breakthrough, Flushing Meadows is about to decide who actually owns this era — and who’s just borrowing time.