US Open Quarterfinals: Sabalenka, Gauff, and Alcaraz in Action
The second week at Flushing Meadows has a way of stripping a Grand Slam down to its essence. The noise fades, the draw shrinks, and the margins tighten. By Tuesday night, the US Open will belong to the last eight in each singles draw, and the tournament’s storylines are converging on a familiar question: who can handle New York when it starts to bite back?
This year, the quarterfinals arrive with a dominant No. 1, a restless American crowd craving a homegrown champion, and a men’s field that has already torn up the seeding chart.
Sabalenka chases Serena’s shadow
Aryna Sabalenka has marched into the last eight like a player on a mission. Four matches, four straight-set wins, barely a hint of vulnerability. The top seed is hunting a third consecutive US Open crown, a run no one has managed since Serena Williams from 2012 to 2014. That’s the scale of what’s at stake for her now.
Standing in her way on Tuesday at 11:30 a.m. is No. 6 seed Linda Noskova, the current Wimbledon champion and the most dangerous opponent Sabalenka has faced this fortnight. Noskova has the weapons to trade with anyone, and in Scooby Axson’s bracket, she does more than that: she sends the two-time defending champion out and helps knock Sabalenka off the No. 1 ranking.
If that prediction holds, the tournament’s balance changes in an instant. Sabalenka’s dominance has framed the women’s event so far. A Noskova win would blow that frame apart.
American hopes rest on Gauff and Pegula
The home crowd has its own dream scenario. Two Americans, two courts, one night session, and the sense that this could still become a red, white and blue Open.
Jessica Pegula, the No. 3 seed and the steadiest American performer over the past few seasons, opens the evening slate at 7 p.m. against No. 26 Emma Navarro. Pegula knows this stage. She reached the US Open final two years ago before running into Sabalenka. Axson expects her to handle Navarro and book a semifinal against Noskova, a clash of precision and power with a spot in the final on the line.
Coco Gauff returns to the scene of her breakthrough as a very different figure. Two years ago, she lifted her first Grand Slam singles trophy in this stadium. Since then, she’s added a French Open title in 2025 and grown into the face of American tennis.
Her quarterfinal, scheduled for Wednesday, might be the purest shot-making duel of the round: No. 4 Gauff against No. 5 Mirra Andreeva, the past two French Open champions colliding in New York. Axson backs Gauff to come through that test and earn a semifinal date with No. 2 Elena Rybakina, the newly top-ranked player in the world and reigning Australian Open champion, who is picked to get past Qinwen Zheng.
If the bracket breaks that way, the women’s last four would feature Gauff, Pegula, Noskova and Rybakina. Two Americans, three current Slam titleholders, and no Sabalenka. The tournament would have a very different feel by Thursday.
A chaotic men’s draw, and one clear favorite
On the men’s side, the story is less about control and more about survival. Only three of the top 10 seeds even reached the fourth round, and the draw has opened up in unexpected ways. Yet at the center of it all stands a familiar figure: Carlos Alcaraz.
The No. 2 seed, already a two-time US Open champion at 2022 and 2025, carries the weight of expectation into a blockbuster quarterfinal on Tuesday night against No. 8 Ben Shelton. It is power against improvisation, raw serving against all-court genius, and Axson’s pick is firm: Alcaraz to advance, even in a draw that has refused to follow the script.
American fans won’t be left empty-handed if that happens. The other men’s quarterfinal on Tuesday guarantees a home semifinalist. No. 11 Frances Tiafoe meets unseeded Alex Michelsen at 1 p.m. in an all-American clash that bridges generations and styles.
Tiafoe, with his flair and New York-friendly swagger, has already tasted deep runs here. He’s projected to reach his third US Open semifinal (after 2022 and 2024), ending Michelsen’s longshot charge. For Michelsen, just being here has shifted his trajectory. For Tiafoe, this is the moment to prove he’s more than a crowd-pleasing sideshow.
Zverev cruises, Khachanov lurks
The top half of the men’s draw has its own hierarchy. No. 1 seed Alexander Zverev has not been troubled often this fortnight and now faces Botic van de Zandschulp on Wednesday. Van de Zandschulp arrives drained after a five-set, three-tiebreak marathon on Monday just to get this far. Axson expects Zverev to roll through that matchup and keep cruising toward the weekend.
The other quarterfinal on that side is where the chaos could spike again. Unseeded Karen Khachanov, already on a giant-killing run, meets No. 28 Alexander Blockx. Seedings say Blockx should be favored. Form and momentum say otherwise. Khachanov is tipped to collect another upset and set up a semifinal against Zverev, a power-heavy clash that would contrast sharply with the shot-making fireworks likely on the Alcaraz side.
Twenty years of waiting
All of this unfolds under a long shadow. No American man has won the US Open since Andy Roddick in 2003. Two decades of near-misses, heartbreaks, and “maybe next years” have turned that statistic into a burden.
Now, three Americans stand in the quarterfinals: Shelton, Tiafoe, Michelsen. One will definitely reach the last four. One might even go further. The path, though, runs straight through Alcaraz and Zverev, two players who have made a habit of turning promise into trophies.
On the women’s side, the drought is shorter, the belief stronger. Gauff is already a champion here. Pegula has been knocking on this door for years. Sabalenka is chasing history. Rybakina is trying to cement a new ranking with a New York statement. Noskova and Andreeva want to crash the party.
By the end of Wednesday, the chaos will narrow to a final four in each draw. The questions will not. Is this the year the American men finally break the 2003 curse? Or will New York once again belong to the stars who have already learned how to win here when it matters most?
