Liam Lawson: Red Bull's Next Driver Gamble
Liam Lawson is fast becoming the fault line in Red Bull’s next great driver gamble.
Thirteen of the 20 seats on the 2026 Formula 1 grid are already spoken for. Most of the remaining nine look like formalities. Contracts to be signed, press releases to be drafted, nothing more.
Red Bull is different. It always is.
Only Max Verstappen is locked in across the four seats at Red Bull and Racing Bulls. The rest of the line-up sits in that familiar Milton Keynes grey zone: heavily briefed, widely assumed, not yet inked.
The expectation in the paddock is clear enough. Isack Hadjar alongside Verstappen at Red Bull. Lawson continuing at Racing Bulls with Arvid Lindblad. Continuity dressed up as evolution.
Yet Lawson’s longer-term future refuses to settle. Every race he runs, every point he scores, seems to fuel another round of argument about whether he truly fits the Red Bull mould.
Rosberg sets a brutal benchmark
Lawson has stepped in for the injured Hadjar at the last three Grands Prix. Seventh at Zandvoort, 14th at Monza, sixth in Madrid. Respectable numbers. Solid work in a car that isn’t the class of the field.
For Nico Rosberg, it isn’t enough.
Speaking on Sky F1, the 2016 world champion cut straight to the heart of Red Bull’s identity.
"That's certainly a difficult decision," he said. "They do need to decide at some point.
"The thing for Red Bull, though, is they're looking for the next Max Verstappen and the next Sebastian Vettel.
"Everything else is just not good enough. At the moment, I'm not sure that Liam Lawson would be considered at that level with what he's been producing so far.
"With Lindblad and also Hadjar, it's still possible in the discussions for them."
That is the standard. Not ‘good midfield operator’. Not ‘dependable points scorer’. Red Bull, in Rosberg’s eyes, is still hunting unicorns.
Mekies pushes back
Inside the team, the tone is very different.
Laurent Mekies, Red Bull team principal and CEO, has been watching Lawson’s three-race cameo from a far closer vantage point. Where Rosberg sees a ceiling, Mekies sees adaptation under pressure.
"I think he's done a very good job," Mekies said. "I think we all know how difficult it is to jump to a different team, to a different car, and I think that he has done that to the best of what could have been our expectations.
"He has taken some very important points today with the P6. He did the same in Zandvoort and in Monza he would have done something similar without the contact with Nico [Hulkenberg] and the front wing damage.
"So, I think he did a very good job, again very different pictures compared to the first two races of 2025 when he was in the team so we are thankful and happy with that."
The numbers back up at least part of that defence. Seventh in the Netherlands, sixth in Madrid, and a compromised run to 14th in Monza after contact with Nico Hulkenberg damaged his front wing. Not headline-grabbing, but hardly anonymous.
What Mekies is really defending, though, is the right to judge Lawson on more than three emergency starts.
A new Red Bull, a different clock
Rosberg’s critique carries weight. He speaks to the Red Bull that Christian Horner and Helmut Marko built: ruthless, impatient, constantly rolling the dice in search of the next phenomenon. If you weren’t Verstappen or Vettel, you were on borrowed time.
This Red Bull is not quite that Red Bull.
The structure has shifted. The decision-makers have changed. The tone around young drivers is softer, more measured. The instinct to pull the trigger has been replaced, at least for now, by a willingness to let a prospect grow into the role.
That subtle change could be crucial for Lawson.
Hadjar is still seen as a live option. Lindblad’s name is already in the conversation. The production line hasn’t slowed. But the idea that one slightly muted stint as a stand-in automatically ends a career feels out of step with the current regime.
Lawson may not yet look like the next Verstappen or Vettel. Very few do. The question facing Red Bull is sharper than that: in a new era for the team, is ‘only’ very good still enough to earn a permanent place on the grid?
