Newcastle vs Hull City Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

St. James' Park hosts an intriguing Premier League clash on 19 September 2026 as Newcastle welcome newly resurgent Hull City in Regular Season - 5. With both sides unbeaten in their last three league outings, this fixture has all the ingredients of a tight, tactical contest despite the bookmakers strongly favouring the home side.

Newcastle come into the weekend sitting 12th on 5 points from four matches. They have been competitive but inconsistent, scoring freely (7 goals) yet conceding even more (8), and still searching for a first home win after two draws on Tyneside. For Eddie Howe’s side, this is the kind of game they must start winning to keep pace with the European places and justify their short match-winner odds.

Hull City arrive in the North East in far better shape in the table. Fourth on 8 points, unbeaten with two wins and two draws, and boasting the joint-best defensive record in the early campaign (only 2 goals conceded), they look like a well-drilled unit capable of frustrating more illustrious opponents. For betting and prediction angles, this is a classic clash between a high-variance attacking side and a compact, efficient outfit.

Newcastle vs Hull City Key Stats

• Newcastle are 12th with 5 points from 4 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 8 in the Premier League standings.
• Across the last five competitive and friendly meetings, Newcastle have repeatedly scored well away at Hull, including a 2-0 win in a club friendly on 27 July 2024 and a 4-1 league win at the Kingston Communications Stadium on 1 March 2014.
• In 2026 Premier League statistics, Hull City have kept 3 clean sheets in 4 matches, conceding just 0.5 goals per game on average.

Newcastle vs Hull City — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 12 vs 4
• Points: 5 vs 8
• Goals For: 7 vs 5
• Goals Against: 8 vs 2
• Clean Sheets: Newcastle 1 (tournament statistics), Hull City 3 (tournament statistics)

The standings underline the early-season contrast between these sides. Newcastle sit 12th with a negative goal difference (-1), having scored 7 and conceded 8 across 4 matches. Their home record shows two draws from two, with 4 goals scored and 4 conceded, suggesting entertainment but a lack of control. The form line of LDWD in the table indicates an up-and-down start, with no back-to-back wins yet.

Hull City, by contrast, are 4th with 8 points and a +3 goal difference (5 scored, 2 conceded). They are unbeaten (WWDD) and have been extremely solid at the back: 0 goals conceded at home and only 2 away. Their ability to manage tight games is clear from their 2-0 home win and 1-0 away win in their “biggest wins” profile, and their 5-4-1 setup has delivered three clean sheets already. On early evidence, Hull are more balanced and defensively reliable, even if Newcastle carry the greater attacking volume.

Newcastle vs Hull City Key Matchups

Y. Wissa vs M. Belloumi

Newcastle’s most impactful all-round attacking midfielder so far has been Yoane Wissa. In four Premier League appearances and four starts, Wissa has 1 goal and 1 assist, with 7 shots (2 on target) and 4 key passes from 64 total passes at 68% accuracy. He is heavily involved in duels (61 contested, 27 won) and draws a lot of fouls (11), underlining his role as a ball-carrying, press-breaking threat. However, his 2 yellow cards show there is a combative edge that could be a risk in a tight, physical game.

For Hull City, creative responsibility and end product have largely come from Mohamed Elbachir Belloumi. In four appearances and four starts, he has 2 goals and 1 assist, making him both top scorer and joint-top assist provider for Hull. Belloumi has 8 shots (3 on target), 48 passes with 3 key passes, and a respectable 68% accuracy. Defensively, he contributes too, with 10 tackles, 3 blocks, and 9 interceptions, reflecting his work rate in Hull’s compact structure. This duel between Wissa’s direct running and Belloumi’s two-way quality could decide which midfield gains the upper hand.

O. McBurnie vs Newcastle’s back line

While no single Newcastle defender appears in the individual stats blocks, the matchup between Oliver McBurnie and the Magpies’ central defence is still crucial. McBurnie has started all four league games for Hull, playing 352 minutes with 0 goals but 1 assist. His underlying numbers are strong: 6 shots (3 on target), 5 key passes from 69 passes, and a huge 74 duels contested with 36 won. He also draws 9 fouls and has picked up 2 yellow cards, showing how he battles physically with centre-backs.

Newcastle’s defensive metrics are concerning: they concede 2.0 goals per game on average and have only 1 clean sheet in their tournament statistics. Hull’s system uses McBurnie as a focal point to relieve pressure and bring midfield runners like Belloumi into play. If Newcastle struggle to handle his aerial and physical presence, Hull will find territory and set-piece opportunities that could tilt the game.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

The recent head-to-head record is rich, with several high-scoring encounters, though many have come at Hull’s ground. The most recent clash was a summer friendly, but there is also a notable League Cup tie decided on penalties and several Premier League meetings earlier in the decade.

• 27 July 2024: Hull City 0-2 Newcastle (Friendlies Clubs)
• 29 November 2016: Hull City 1-1 Newcastle (League Cup, Hull won 3-1 on penalties)
• 31 January 2015: Hull City 0-3 Newcastle (Premier League)
• 20 September 2014: Newcastle 2-2 Hull City (Premier League)
• 1 March 2014: Hull City 1-4 Newcastle (Premier League)

Newcastle vs Hull City Prediction

Stats suggest a clash of styles. Newcastle’s league form (LDWD) and attacking numbers — 1.8 goals scored per game but 2.0 conceded — point to open matches with plenty of chances at both ends. Hull City, on the other hand, are unbeaten with WWDD, averaging 1.3 goals scored and just 0.5 conceded, anchored by three clean sheets and a disciplined 5-4-1 structure.

The prediction model rates Hull City as the more resilient side, assigning them a 45% chance of victory, with another 45% on the draw and just 10% on a Newcastle win. That effectively frames this as a “Hull or draw” game despite Newcastle’s home advantage. However, the betting markets strongly disagree: home odds range from 1.53 to 1.63 (implied roughly 61–65% win probability), while Hull’s away odds sit between 4.76 and 5.49 (about 18–21%), with the draw around 3.84–4.52 (22–26%).

Reconciling those perspectives, the most likely match flow is Newcastle having more of the ball and shots, but Hull’s compact defensive block and set-piece threat keeping them very much in it. With Hull yet to lose and Newcastle yet to win at home, a low-scoring stalemate fits both the underlying numbers and the prediction percentages.

Predicted Score: Newcastle 1-1 Hull City

Newcastle Recent Form

Newcastle’s recent Premier League form is mixed, with a sequence of LDWD in the standings. Across 4 matches, they have 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 defeat. They have been more open than they would like, scoring 7 and conceding 8, with no clean sheet at home and just one overall. Their typical 4-2-3-1 setup has delivered goals in every game but has left them vulnerable in transition and at set pieces.

Hull City Recent Form

Hull City’s recent form line of WWDD reflects an unbeaten and increasingly confident side. They have 2 wins and 2 draws from 4 matches, with 5 goals scored and only 2 conceded. Defensively, they have been outstanding, recording 3 clean sheets and allowing just 0.5 goals per game on average. Their structure has proven adaptable, with a strong home record and no away defeats so far.

Newcastle Possible Starting Lineup

GK: N. Pope; Defenders: S. Botman, D. Burn, T. Livramento, L. Hall; Midfielders: Joelinton, Nico González, J. Willock, J. Murphy, Y. Wissa; Forwards: A. Elanga.

Newcastle’s squad list suggests a continuation of the 4-2-3-1 formation used in all four league games, with Nick Pope in goal and a back line likely built around Sven Botman and Dan Burn, plus attacking full-backs like Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall. In midfield, the physical presence of Joelinton alongside Nico González offers balance, while Joe Willock and Jacob Murphy provide energy and width. Yoane Wissa is the key attacking midfielder, with Anthony Elanga a pacey option in the front line. The depth in attack — including Harvey Barnes, W. Osula and others — gives Newcastle flexibility to chase the game if needed, but the challenge will be maintaining defensive discipline against Hull’s counters.

Hull City Possible Starting Lineup

GK: J. Butland; Defenders: S. Ajayi, J. Egan, C. Hughes, R. Giles, B. Norton-Cuffy; Midfielders: H. Morita, E. Matazo, M. Belloumi, A. Ömür; Forwards: O. McBurnie.

Hull City’s statistics show a consistent 5-4-1 shape across their four league matches, built on a strong defensive core. Jack Butland should continue in goal, protected by a back five featuring experienced centre-backs like Semi Ajayi and John Egan, with wing-backs such as Ryan Giles and Brooke Norton-Cuffy providing width. In midfield, Hidemasa Morita and Eliot Matazo can anchor the centre, allowing creative players like Abdülkadir Ömür and, crucially, M. Belloumi to link with target man O. McBurnie. This setup has delivered three clean sheets and makes Hull difficult to break down while still carrying a threat from Belloumi’s goals and McBurnie’s hold-up play.

Newcastle Team News

No significant absences reported.

Hull City Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Newcastle:

• None reported.

Hull City:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Newcastle vs Hull City

Below are three data-driven betting angles based on current form, head-to-head trends and available odds.

• Result Tip: Hull City or Draw (Double Chance). The prediction model gives Newcastle only a 10% chance of victory, with 45% each on the draw and a Hull win, highlighting strong value in opposing the short home price. While we do not have explicit double-chance odds in the feed, the match-winner market shows Newcastle at 1.53–1.63 (≈61–65% implied), the draw at 3.84–4.52 (≈22–26%), and Hull at 4.76–5.49 (≈18–21%). Given Hull’s unbeaten WWDD form and defensive solidity, backing Hull to avoid defeat looks a sensible angle.
• Goals Tip: Under 2.5 Total Goals. Both teams’ under/over profiles in league play are heavily skewed towards lower-scoring matches: for Newcastle, only 1 of 4 games has gone over 1.5 goals conceded, and all are under the higher thresholds in the goal distribution; for Hull, all four games have stayed under 2.5 and 3.5 goals. Hull’s defence (2 goals conceded in 4 matches) and Newcastle’s improving organisation point towards a tight contest. With H2H including several controlled away performances by Newcastle at Hull, a cautious goals line makes sense. Use the closest under/over odds available with your bookmaker.
• Value Tip: M. Belloumi to Score or Assist. From a player-performance perspective, M. Belloumi stands out as Hull’s key attacking asset with 2 goals and 1 assist in 4 appearances, plus 8 shots and 3 key passes. He is central to their chance creation and finishing. In a game where Hull may get fewer but higher-quality opportunities, Belloumi is the most likely to be involved in any away goal. Look for anytime scorer or goal/assist combo markets on Belloumi; with Hull priced at 4.76–5.49 to win, his individual lines are likely to offer attractive value relative to his current output.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.