US Open 2026: Sabalenka Chases History Amidst Fierce Competition
Aryna Sabalenka walks into New York chasing a ghost with a familiar name.
Serena Williams was the last woman to own the US Open, three straight titles from 2012 to 2014. No one has come close to that kind of grip on Flushing Meadows since. Now Sabalenka, already a back-to-back champion, is one tournament away from standing alongside her.
History isn’t her only opponent.
The world No. 1 arrives with a season that has felt flat by her own standards and a ranking under siege. Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff are all close enough to smell the top spot. If Sabalenka wants to keep it, she has to survive one of the nastiest routes in the women’s draw: a possible third-round meeting with No. 27 Barbora Krejcikova, No. 15 Diana Shnaider in the fourth, and No. 6 Linda Noskova — the 2026 Wimbledon champion — in the quarterfinals.
She has chased a three-peat before. At the 2025 Australian Open, Rybakina slammed that door shut. New York offers a second chance, but nothing about this feels simple.
On the men’s side, nothing feels settled at all.
With Jannik Sinner out injured and Carlos Alcaraz only just returning to singles after nearly four months away, the US Open has cracked wide open. Those two have taken three of the last four titles here. Remove Sinner entirely and drop Alcaraz in half-cooked, and suddenly everyone in the locker room feels a little taller.
The draw, released on August 27, sharpened the picture. It also made clear who should be smiling — and who shouldn’t.
Rybakina’s shot at No. 1 comes with a limp
Elena Rybakina knows exactly what’s at stake. Reach the semifinals and she becomes world No. 1 for the first time.
Her body may have other ideas.
Achilles soreness flared in Cincinnati, and she left with an injury scare that still hasn’t fully cleared. She has not even confirmed she’ll play in New York. If she does, the draw gives her a soft runway and then a wall.
Rybakina opens against Thea Frodin, then likely sees Darja Vidmanova in the second round. Two matches to test the ankle, two matches to decide if this is a real run or a gamble gone wrong.
Then the temperature rises.
A potential third-round clash with Maria Sakkari. A possible fourth round against two-time US Open champion Naomi Osaka, who knows these courts better than almost anyone in the field. Survive that, and Rybakina could get former world No. 1 Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinals — the same Swiatek who beat her in the Canadian Open final earlier this month.
Rybakina has never been past the fourth round in New York. To leave as No. 1, she’ll have to rewrite her US Open history on one good leg.
American men sense an opening
The drought hangs over every US Open: no American man has lifted the trophy since Andy Roddick in 2003. Entire careers have come and gone under that shadow.
This year feels different.
The absence of Sinner and the uncertain version of Alcaraz turn the men’s draw into a free-for-all. Six American men sit inside the top 25: Ben Shelton (No. 9), Taylor Fritz (No. 10), Frances Tiafoe (No. 12), Learner Tien (No. 15), Brandon Nakashima (No. 17) and Tommy Paul (No. 21). They’re not just seeded; they’re winning.
Fritz claimed a hard-court title in Washington, D.C. Shelton did the same in Montreal. Nakashima reached a final there, and Tiafoe played for the title in Cincinnati. These aren’t hopefuls anymore. They’re contenders staring at a bracket that, for once, doesn’t feel pre-decided.
New York has waited 21 years for a homegrown champion. With the old order wobbling, this might be the best chance yet.
Pegula’s window opens
Jessica Pegula has stopped pretending. She told USA TODAY Sports her “goal is to win the tournament,” and the draw doesn’t argue with her.
She starts against Elena-Gabriela Ruse, then gets the winner of Venus Williams vs. Sofia Kenin — a first round that will command the spotlight for its history as much as its tennis. From there, Pegula’s path stays manageable for a while.
A possible third-round meeting with No. 31 Leylah Fernandez, then likely No. 16 Sorana Cirstea in the fourth. Pegula owns a 3-1 record over Cirstea. Only in the quarterfinals does the road begin to twist, with No. 7 Karolina Muchova or No. 9 Elina Svitolina looming.
And waiting beyond that, in a potential semifinal, is the woman who has repeatedly slammed the door on her Grand Slam dreams: Sabalenka.
Pegula lost her first major final to Sabalenka at the 2024 US Open in straight sets. The year before, Sabalenka stopped her in the semifinals. If Pegula is going to change her story, she may have to go through the same obstacle, on the same court, all over again.
First-round fireworks
The draw didn’t bother with a slow build.
On the men’s side, No. 10 Arthur Fils opens against Stefanos Tsitsipas in a matchup that feels like a crossroads. Fils arrives with his first ATP Masters 1000 title in his pocket after beating Tiafoe in three sets in Cincinnati. Tsitsipas hasn’t survived past the second round at any major this year, yet he’s still a two-time Grand Slam finalist (2021 French Open, 2023 Australian Open) and dangerous in any best-of-five.
On the women’s side, circle No. 20 Maja Chwalińska against American Taylor Townsend. Chwalińska, the 2026 French Open finalist, brings clay-court credentials; Townsend brings New York bravado. She has twice reached the fourth round here, including last year, and tends to play her most fearless tennis in front of this crowd.
There won’t be much easing into the fortnight.
Djokovic draws a gauntlet
Novak Djokovic’s chase for a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title — more than any man or woman in history — will not be a ceremonial procession.
He opens against Mariano Navone in their first-ever meeting. From there, the names get heavier and the margin for error shrinks.
A second-round date could come against Matteo Berrettini, the 2021 Wimbledon finalist, or three-time major winner Stan Wawrinka. The third round might bring No. 27 Tomas Etcheverry. The fourth? Possibly No. 16 Brandon Nakashima or No. 23 Andrey Rublev.
If Djokovic fights through all of that, No. 7 Daniil Medvedev, a former US Open champion, likely waits in the quarterfinals. Beyond that, the semifinal could feature No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz, No. 8 Ben Shelton or No. 10 Arthur Fils.
And if the 39-year-old reaches the final, the draw points straight at No. 1 Alexander Zverev.
For a man who has seen almost everything, this still qualifies as a mountain.
Gauff gets the hard road
Calling Coco Gauff a loser feels wrong. She just won the 2026 Cincinnati Open and walks into New York as one of the hottest players in the world.
The draw, though, shows no mercy.
In the second round, Gauff could face either Paula Badosa or Daria Kasatkina — both unseeded, both far more dangerous than their rankings suggest. Each has lived in the top 10 before, and Badosa beat Gauff on grass in Berlin in June.
A potential third-round rematch with No. 28 Sara Bejlek would reprise their Cincinnati semifinal last week, which Gauff won 6-4, 6-1 before taking the title over Pegula.
The fourth round could bring No. 14 Iva Jovic or No. 17 Alexandra Eala. Reach a third US Open quarterfinal, and Gauff’s reward might be No. 5 Mirra Andreeva, the 2026 French Open champion. Gauff has dominated that rivalry so far, winning all five of their meetings, including on clay at the Italian Open in May. Their only hard-court match came at the 2023 US Open, where Gauff won 6-3, 6-2.
There’s another twist. Fellow American Amanda Anisimova, the No. 10 seed and last year’s US Open finalist, could also stand between Gauff and the semifinals. Anisimova leads their head-to-head 2-1.
Make it that far and the mountain only grows. No. 2 Elena Rybakina or No. 8 Iga Swiatek could be waiting. Rybakina owns titles at the Australian Open and Wimbledon; Swiatek has six major singles trophies, including the 2022 US Open, and a 125-week run at No. 1 behind her.
Gauff has the form. The question is whether she has enough left to run that entire gauntlet.
Tiafoe’s gamble, Venus’s return
Frances Tiafoe arrives with more tape than certainty.
Earlier this month, he had surgery to remove a cyst from his right hand. Days later, against doctors’ wishes, he played Cincinnati anyway. “They didn’t actually want me to play here ... but obviously every athlete’s stubborn,” he said after his semifinal win. He made the final, then faded 6-3, 1-6, 6-0 to Arthur Fils, taking a medical timeout and later pulling out of US Open mixed doubles.
His status for singles has become a quiet worry.
New York has been the stage for his best moments: two Grand Slam semifinals, both at the US Open (2022, 2024). The draw gives him a gentle start — fellow American Martin Damm Jr. in the first round, then likely Aleksandar Vukic in the second, opponents he already owns head-to-head.
After that, the walls close in. No. 7 Daniil Medvedev looms as a possible fourth-round opponent. No. 4 Novak Djokovic could wait in the quarterfinals, with No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz penciled in as a potential semifinal rival.
If Tiafoe wants to write another New York chapter, he’ll have to do it with a hand that has already been through more than most this month.
Across the grounds, another American name still commands its own gravity.
Venus Williams, 46 years old and playing her 26th US Open, returns on a wild card and walks straight into a first-round meeting with a Grand Slam champion. Sofia Kenin, the 2020 Australian Open winner, stands across the net on a surface she knows how to exploit.
Venus played singles here last year and at the Australian Open earlier this season. Both times, she went out in the first round. The draw offers her no kindness now, only another hard-court champion and another test of how long her love for this place can outlast the years.
The storylines are everywhere: Sabalenka’s chase of Serena, Rybakina’s fragile push for No. 1, Djokovic’s brutal road to 25, the American men staring at their best opening in two decades.
New York has a way of picking its heroes and breaking its favorites. This year, with the field fractured and history dangling in front of so many, who’s ready to grab it?
